The political chaos unfolding in Negeri Sembilan has become a problem for Barisan Nasional. Not because it threatens the state’s stability, the BN-led administration there appears secure for now but because it threatens the party’s credibility. And credibility is the currency that will decide the Melaka election.

The Royal Proclamation Mess

The crisis began on August 3, when Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Datuk Ismail Lasim signed an instrument of proclamation purportedly removing Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir as Yang di-Pertuan Besar. 

On September 9, Ismail claimed he had signed the document “against his will and under duress”, lodging a police report the same day. He described the proclamation as invalid, unconstitutional and unenforceable, and pledged his “unwavering loyalty” to Tuanku Muhriz.

Then, on September 17, he reversed himself. Ismail confirmed that the state executive council had “unanimously endorsed” the removal of Tuanku Muhriz during its September 15 meeting and instructed the state secretary to proceed with gazettement. 

The state’s customary council, the Dewan Keadilan dan Undang, had already ruled the April proclamation invalid from the outset and warned that the signatories could be considered to have committed grave disloyalty to the monarch.

The Attorney-General’s Chambers then weighed in, stating that the state executive council had no legal authority to declare the royal position vacant. Ismail’s reversals have made the Negeri Sembilan government look chaotic and incoherent. And BN owns that government.

Why This Matters for Melaka

Melaka is not Negeri Sembilan. But voters do not live in sealed compartments. What happens in one state shapes perceptions in another—especially when the same coalition is involved.

Analysts have warned that the royal row risks undermining Umno’s claim to be the defender of the monarchy. “You can’t say that you are the protector of the monarchy and at the same time be involved in this,” said Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting. He noted that the controversy could resonate particularly strongly among Malay voters in the upper-M40 and T20 brackets, who are more likely to scrutinise such inconsistencies.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia added that the controversy “risked creating a perception that Umno was directly involved in efforts to remove Tuanku Muhriz” and could hurt the party among Malay fence-sitters who value respect for the royal institution.

These are precisely the voters BN needs in Melaka. Centrist Malays who are not ideologically committed to PAS or PN but who prioritise stability, competence and institutional respect. If those voters begin to see BN as chaotic and inconsistent, they may stay home—or swing elsewhere.

Zahid’s Reckoning

Zahid Hamidi appears to have read the room.

In August, he said BN would continue its alliance with PN in Melaka, citing the Negeri Sembilan victory. By late August, the tone had shifted. “Grassroots sentiment is mixed,” he said. “We are conducting a detailed study. We should not enter a situation where the conditions are unsuitable, hostile or unlikely to produce a good outcome for us”.

Zahid has not ruled out cooperation with PN. But he has also not committed to it. And he has delegated the final decision to Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh, who will negotiate with any coalition and bring the outcome to central leadership for approval.

The grassroots, meanwhile, are sending mixed signals. Umno Youth chief Akmal Saleh has openly opposed working with PH, calling instead for cooperation with PAS under the penyatuan ummah banner. Wanita Umno has declared itself ready to “continue the blue wave” to Melaka. And PAS president Hadi Awang has claimed that “most of BN’s grassroots support cooperation with PN”.

The Centrist Problem

The Negeri Sembilan mess will not decide the Melaka election on its own. But it contributes to a broader perception problem for BN.

Centrist voters—the ones who decide close elections in mixed constituencies—tend to prioritise two things: competence and consistency. The Negeri Sembilan government has demonstrated neither. The MB signed a proclamation, denied it, confirmed it, and then endorsed it. The exco members followed the same zigzag. The party leadership has offered no clear explanation.

If BN cannot manage a crisis in one state, why should voters trust it to manage another? That is the question that will linger as Melaka heads to the polls.

Zahid’s careful, non-committal approach is an attempt to avoid making things worse. But caution is not a solution. It is a holding pattern. And holding patterns do not win elections.

What Comes Next

Melaka’s state assembly mandate expires in December. An election is coming. BN is expected to defend all 21 seats it won in 2021, but the coalition’s internal divisions and the shadow of Negeri Sembilan will make that harder than the 2021 result suggests.

Zahid has said BN needs a “Melaka-specific formula” rather than simply copying what worked in Johor or Negeri Sembilan. That is true. But the more urgent problem is not the formula. It is the credibility. And credibility, once lost, is not easily rebuilt—especially not in the middle of a royal controversy that the party has yet to fully explain.